10 Year Bond-Did we just get a 5?

Could it be we just put in a 5th wave in on the 10 year?

Careful on this 10 year And ES

Be careful as the world thinks bonds just continue to drop out of bed.  This 10 year will have some pauses and the a=c off the top will be one.  A bounce there and a pullback in the es for sure.

The Titans

My nuclear winter is over.  Titans tickets have arrived.  As was uttered in the movie "Jerry McGuire, every mans toughest words, "You complete me".  And as Shakespeare said in his most famous novel, "now is the winter of my discontent made glorious summer by the Tennessee Titans".

Oil and The Breakout

The blast off of the bottom was impressive no doubt.  The bulls had enough and have converted a gigantic W.  It was a move that tore out some livers and left some guys stunned.  The real question is simple  was the low in July the end of wave 3, the high at 92ish wave 4 and the move up Friday a retrace of wave 4 and we are headed down for a wave 5 that takes out July's lows?  The alternate is this.  Wave 5 is in on the lows.  Period.  What has the count troubled is that wave 1 appeared to be in at 89ish, however the count got busted when we broke through those highs, so the alternate count is wave 1 was not in until 90.35.  If so the double bottom holds wave 2 and we are beginning wave 3.  That takes us clearly to the first target of 95.21 95.64 and the clear a=c off the bottom at 95.64.  No real long term retrace resistance until 96.22 with 99.36 a possible destination for wave 3.  I'm a buyer at 89.95, a bigger buyer at 89.39 and load the boat at 88.93, if right its the gift of the month. All dependent of the nano count at that moment. 

As for right now its a short.  Look for a a=c off the top to plop down between 90.69 or 90.63.  And it will be to the tick and a good scalp.  With a pop there of 30 cents or so sometimes early in the European session.

Soy Beans Doom and Gloom

Its fallen out of the Wedge, its fallen below the Head & Shoulders its in trouble here.  If I have the count right we are working on 3 of 5 here.  If we are lucky 4 of 5 takes us back up to the trend-line at 1609 even if we get that in the bulls desperate attempt at this point to get some long.  But from there it may be bombs away.  we break the biggest fib on the board at 1576.  a break there pauses and bounces a bit at 1567 and 1561-1558 on its way to 1545.  I still theorize that the fib its looking for on this run is 1506-1503.  This bastard is in trouble and gonna roll over like a stuck pig the week before thanksgiving.

Nq Long Term

Well NQ will follow AAPL I guess but its worth taking a look at the long term fibs.   Same situation really.   A fall to 2654.61 seems in the cards probably tonight if not in the European session.  Upside fib at 2680.75 and we rest barely on a trend-line.  I actually assumed that 2737.15 would be the top but AAPL pulled it higher just high enough to get outside its bands and pay the price for doing so.  A fall through 2654.61 surely brings 2642.49 which is where it will intersect a rising cloud.  I would use such interesting terms as Tenkan and Chikou but lets just say there is a rising daily cloud.

Interestingly keep your eye on 2719.25, its in white for a reason.  It is the granddad of all extension fibs on this chart and I was somewhat surprised to see it haven fallen so fast  Don't think it will go unnoticed if it gets a round 2.

AAPL-Fibs Big Week

Since AAPL seems to be so much of the market lets look at what happened and what is likely to happen yet. First of all AAPL is human too.  A Daily punch into a descending BB is nothing short of disastrous.  Even for the best company around.  What are the odds it just wouldn't matter?  Zero.  Period.  The Algos hate it and its their first signal to get out.  And they did, to the i tune of (did you catch that?, I have to amuse myself somehow), 72 points.  And in clear algo fashion bounced in between to suck some more suckers in.  It was a classic pattern, so lets look at what probably happens now.

Earnings is always exciting.  It moves fast and hard so where is it going.  Well a washout to the bottom puts 567.27 and 565.03 practically in the bag.  If it gets real frisky then its 543.57 , 548.16 and doubles at 543.56.  But here is the good part.  If we get that level I would think buy it.   At that point not only do we get a double fib we get the rising cloud on a daily chart and that just aint going away easy folks.  It should bounce from there back to the upper fibs.

Be aware of the 50ma below first.  That is one line it will not give up quickly at 566.78 and will create a temporary head fake.