Oil and The Breakout

The blast off of the bottom was impressive no doubt.  The bulls had enough and have converted a gigantic W.  It was a move that tore out some livers and left some guys stunned.  The real question is simple  was the low in July the end of wave 3, the high at 92ish wave 4 and the move up Friday a retrace of wave 4 and we are headed down for a wave 5 that takes out July's lows?  The alternate is this.  Wave 5 is in on the lows.  Period.  What has the count troubled is that wave 1 appeared to be in at 89ish, however the count got busted when we broke through those highs, so the alternate count is wave 1 was not in until 90.35.  If so the double bottom holds wave 2 and we are beginning wave 3.  That takes us clearly to the first target of 95.21 95.64 and the clear a=c off the bottom at 95.64.  No real long term retrace resistance until 96.22 with 99.36 a possible destination for wave 3.  I'm a buyer at 89.95, a bigger buyer at 89.39 and load the boat at 88.93, if right its the gift of the month. All dependent of the nano count at that moment. 

As for right now its a short.  Look for a a=c off the top to plop down between 90.69 or 90.63.  And it will be to the tick and a good scalp.  With a pop there of 30 cents or so sometimes early in the European session.

CL Short Term Fibs 3-7

CL Short Term Fib 2-29

From The Blast Up on 2-23

Think Oil May Be Recognizing Long Term Fibs?

Retrace from May Highs to October Lows, Extension From December Lows to Jan Highs to Feb Lows.

CL Air Pockets 2-29

Thickest support lies at 106.25 with thick support down to 105.80 with an air pocket between there and 105.39.  Decent support from there down to 104.78 where it turns into nothing but air between there and 103.78.  To the upside, Thinning decreasing resistance from 106.33 to 107.78 with the real air pockets between  107.04 and 107.30, and 107.49 and 107.70.  From there increasing resistance to a peak at 108.55 with decreasing resistance from there to the last air pocket which lies between 109.25 and 109.55.

CL Fibs 2-23

Once Again if I wanted to put all of the fibs on this chart it would be a wreck.  So the more prominent ones are listed.  Side note as you know I use volume charts instead of time for analysis.  We are in almost uncharted water for high volume bars on CL which is to say its super strong.  The few times we have seen these readings in the past they have led to 4, 6, 8, and 11 drops in CL.  Not saying it does it here but gulp!!

CL Mid Range Fibs 2-3

CL Punched through a band Friday afternoon at 98.  Its paid the price since falling to the two Fibs at 97.18 and 97.18.   The Biggest Fib on the board is 96.24.  A big Retrace fib 50%.  Support sits at 97.19  97.10 96.24, 95.50 and 95.26.  Resistance sits at 96.41, 99.76 and 99.70.