The chart I post here is the subject of much debate among the smart guys who forecast what is next. Not being in that crowd of smart people I have tended to use my own system to predict what key levels are on my own. After I started posting my fibs both long term and short term I started getting a lot of feedback most of which was positive but some which was not. I am a member in several rooms with a lot of very smart traders in them. So the debate began. My charts for long term use continuous contract. I have been relatively successful with that although gold can be a problem sometime. ES, EC and CL have not. Oh the emails. You have it all wrong. You have either got to use SPY or adjust for the premium. We all know where ES bottomed out in real life and its not the same number on continuous contract. Oh well.
To be quite honest fibs are my game. They just work. I know squat about EW. Nano fibs long term fibs just seem to click. Everybody has some small thing that just clicks in this business and they did with me. I have generally figured out how to filter out the ones that mean nothing to the ones that mean something. But to be quite honest I was getting so much feedback from the experts saying that I should adjust this or that for the premium and the eventual bleed off that it made me take a step back. I kept running them the same way I always did and traded off of them but it made me a little uneasy. To a degree it got into my head. Maybe they were right.
That all changed for me at 1416.99 and 1419.75 and I got my wind back in my sails and decided to continue to do it my way. Most of the gurus were calling for a little top somewhere in the 24-25 area ES. Using other charts that may have been in fact the case but mine did not say that was the case. I had 1416.99 as the top for now, 1357.25 as the likely floor with a meeting in the middle of 1370.69. I played it that way. It worked. Although I played it small with my mind cluttered thinking about the "smarter" fibs at play. Something the really smart guys loose track of is what are the computers doing. They don't have feelings or ideas. They do what they are programmed to do. Nothing else. I watch these things all day long fight over these fibs. Oil is the prime example. The algo s were split on 110. Recognize it or treat it as an anomaly and work off of the previous high. All the way down they have fought each other. And when we got close to the alternating fibs we would sit there go back and forth and then go up or down. Algos get confused sometimes but only as it relates to the other algo's. And I have done quite well feasting over them being split 50/50 on which high to use, the whole way down.
Having said all of that my fibs here are what I think the Algos are working off of. We can debate all day about premiums, rollovers, bleeding off the premium and so forth but I'm going tot stick with what I know and CC works for me. The really smart guys use fibs that I call Roger Staubach. My father was a big Dallas Cowboys fan. We never missed a game on TV. He was passionate, screaming, yelling and such. Roger was predictable and successful. One thanksgiving day Roger got hurt. In came Clint Longley. Who? Nobody had ever heard of him. The cowboys were toast, behind to the redskins. By all accounts history will look at Clint Longly as not being the smartest tool in the shed, but he knew how to throw the football.
Longly is remembered for his performance on Thanksgiving Day, 1974 against the Redskins. A rookie at the time came in for the inured Staubach with the Cowboys trailing in the 3rd quarter 16-3. He hit Dupree for a 35 yard touchdown. He then led them on a 70 yard drive for another touchdown. He crowned the game with a 50 yard touchdown pass with the Cowboys down 23-17 and 28 seconds left in the game and no timeouts. The cowboys won on the play 24-23. Longley had no expectation of even playing and was completely unprepared. Cowboys lineman Blaine Nye called his winning effort "the triumph of the uncluttered mind".
So with that in mind I will say this, do what works with an uncluttered mind. For full disclosure I will say that eventually after an altercation with Roger he was shipped out of Dallas to the wasteland in San Deigo and never heard from again. Today he sells carpet remnants out of the back of a van in Marfa Texas. No joke.
Now to the uncluttered fibs which I think the algos work off of. Its simple, we had problems at 1370.69 and fell back to 1337.00 where we held. We then blasted off straight to 1416.99 spilling over just a bit to see who would bite. Those that did bite are now not very happy because the 1419.75 combined with the 100% Fib Speed Arc proved to be a wall. We tried it again to see who we could sucker in (a common strategy) but again we never closed above the third rate fib. Where did we fall Oddly to the 1370.69 as first support and then of course to 1357.25 again with a touch of spill. And what held 1370.69 for now. To the upside we will face resistance on one trendline and another small one to the bottom. A break through this trendline will pause at the fib 1357.25 and if it falls well 1337 here we come. A trendline test is almost certain sunday night or early Monday morning in the 1361ish area. Look at the chart and the failures and tell me the "uncluttered mind" of the CC fibs don't work occasionally. There is your levels.
